October 21, 2012
Going into the final month of the election, a great deal of attention was being paid to Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida because they were considered the big Battleground states by political experts. At the beginning of October all four states were undecided, but polls in all four states showed a slight lead for Obama. Halfway through the final month, the landscape is dramatically different.
North Carolina and Florida Are Now Red States
North Carolina, no longer in doubt, will be a Romney victory. The Obama campaign agrees and has pulled its planned advertising from North Carolina so it can spend the money somewhere else where Obama has a chance of winning.
You can also move Florida to the Republican column. Pollster Frank Luntz is ready to “take Florida off the Swing State list” and put it in Mitt Romney’s column.
The latest Fox News polls released Friday show Romney has a 3 percentage point lead in the Sunshine State. That’s an 8-point reversal and an 8-point increase for Romney, compared to polls essentially prior to the first presidential debate, Oct. 3.
When focusing on the state’s most interested voters, Romney‘s advantage expands to 11 points over Obama. Luntz tells Fox News’ “America’s News Headquarters” those number are just too strong to consider Florida still up for grabs.
Like many pollsters and pundits, Luntz thinks Ohio is the “key state.”
Luntz says given how tight the race is in several key states, he isn’t ruling out a situation in which Obama wins the Electoral College and Romney wins the popular vote — something that has happened just three times in U.S. history.
“The odds of it are not great,” he said. “There are other states that are in play. Virginia is an essential state. Everyone is watching Wisconsin. And there are several others such as New Hampshire and Iowa that are still in play.”