Abstract

The 2016 presidential primaries have seen GOP voter turnout crushing Democrats by margins that significantly exceed those that can be explained by an enthusiasm gap. There is more than just enthusiasm at play, as Republican voters have delivered record turnout in every state that has voted thus far. At the same time, Democrats are experiencing a far different result, with an appreciable decline in the voter turnout Democrats experienced in 2008.

Republican front runner, Donald Trump, is a non-politician outsider who claims he is attracting millions of new voters – many of whom have never before voted – to the Republican brand. Trump’s assertion is absolutely true, but it does not entirely explain the substantial disparity between Republicans and Democrats.

The article examines several major factors that are driving turnout and try to determine whether these factors are short-term or whether they represent a seminal shift in the grass roots of each party. We examine how turnout is being effected by Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, the Republican establishment,democrat policies and voter fraud.

GOP Voter Turnout Crushing Democrats

The 2016 presidential election campaign and the presidential primaries for both Republicans and Democrats couldn’t be more different. Democrat voter turnout has been abysmal. The overall decline in Democrat turnout from 2008 (the last year both parties had open primaries, with no incumbent) is just under 30 percent. Republican turnout, on the other hand, has increased more than 50 percent since the 2008 campaign. The GOP primaries and caucuses are attracting more Republicans than ever before.

For Republicans, there is a great deal of objective, quantifiable information that indicates broader electoral success– in addition to the actual voter turnout figures themselves – that indicates support the Republican increases. Debate viewership, size and intensity of crowds at candidate events, and voter turnout at the polls among them. Further, they have improved in all of the early voting states. Each of the metrics we analyzed indicates a permanent shift with record high levels of interest and participation.

Television ratings for the Republican debates are reportedly higher than any political debates in history, much higher. The first Republican debate, which was hosted by the Fox News Channel on August 6, 2015 was watched by 25 million households, making it the most watched show in the history of the network.

The field of GOP presidential contenders was like the field at the Kentucky Derby, with 17 candidates in the starting gate. As of the writing of this article, four Republican campaigns remain active: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich. The 13 candidates who withdrew from the campaign all did so by Super Tuesday on March 1.

One candidate, GOP front runner Donald Trump, has enjoyed more success than have the other Republicans in the race. Trump’s political rallies routinely draw 20,000 supporters or more. Trump events have been so successful that changes to the venue have been necessary several times in order to accommodate the ever increasing number of supporters who attend. The venue for one event in Alabama had to be changed to an outdoor college football stadium because turnout was so high, with 35,000 Trump supporters in attendance.

Supporters of the Republican presidential contenders are driving voter turnout in the primaries and caucuses, sky high, with each state posting record high turnout. For example,

  • In the Iowa caucus, the first in the nation contest, voter turnout rose 57 percent from 2008.
  • New Hampshire, though not as strong, still posted a 19 percent increase from 2008.
  • South Carolina surpassed all previous marks with an incredible 67 percent rise at the polls.
  • By the time Super Tuesday rolled around, voter turnout achieved even greater success: by example Minnesota up 94 percent, Texas up 108 percent and Virginia up 109 percent.

Reasons GOP Voter Turnout Crushing Democrats

Which factors are causing the spike are being debated by pundits and candidate alike. Republican front runner, Donald Trump, argues that his presence is primarily responsible for the growth. With attendance at Trump events routinely surpassing 20,000 (with one reaching 35,000) it’s hard to disagree with Trump’s analysis. There is little doubt that Trump is one of the, if not the driving force behind the surge in voter participation.

Donald Trump took credit for the surge in Republican enthusiasm several months ago, as soon as he began seeing extraordinary attendance at campaign events, but there are still more factors at work to drive the kind on increases we are seeing. We do analyze the Trump factor first.

Billionaire Political Outsider Donald Trump

This political outsider is attracting so many new, energetic voters to the Republican party that the total almost certainly extends into the millions, and his politically incorrect style is exactly what supporters needed.

Simply counting the number of supporters at Trump campaign events is enough to indicate that Trump is responsible for an expansion in Republican voter rolls that is reaching into the millions. Trump’s popularity is substantially improving the Republican brand. Trump campaign events draw huge numbers of Trump faithful every day, a phenomenon that led many political pundits to speculate that Trump supporters were political tire kickers who wouldn’t really show up at the polls. Trump and his supporters proved the naysayers wrong, delivering huge crowds of his supporters – many of whom that have never before voted – to the polling places. The pundits were wrong and Trump has received more primary votes than any other Republican candidate in history.

Trump’s style of shooting from the hip while completely abandoning political correctness has positioned Trump as the perfect candidate for a GOP voter base that has grown increasingly disconnected from the GOP establishment. Trump is a billionaire that celebrates his wealth, rather than minimizing it, as the last GOP presidential candidate did so unsuccessfully.

Despite his wealth Trump is completely at ease with his blue collar supporters, who are equally comfortable with him. In blurring all of the class, income and demographic lines, Trump successfully appeals to a broader range of voters than any Republican candidate in recent memory.

The relationship between Trump and his supporters is unique. Throughout the campaign, every outrageous, politically incorrect, career ending statement Trump has made, has instead made Trump more popular with his supporters. Trump supporters also aggressively protect their candidate any time he is attacked. This mutual support phenomenon that endears the candidate to the voters – and the voters to the candidate – has grown into an almost sacred bond that both sides embrace. Every time Trump is attacked by rivals, pundits or the Republican establishment, he grows stronger and his supporters more loyal.

Anti-Trump protesters who try to disrupt Trump events, almost universally meet with the same fate. Trump supporters swiftly and aggressively remove them from the venue and destroy any protest signs and other materials while the rest of the audience in attendance chants Trump’s name or USA. Supporters protect Trump so efficiently, his Secret Service detail is almost unnecessary. For Republican voters who are sick of liberals, Hillary Clinton, political correctness, microaggression, trigger warnings, Islamic terrorists, Iranian Ayatollahs, illegal immigrants and, most especially, weak, loser politicians who have stopped standing up for their constituents, Trump was heaven sent.

The Republican Establishment

The Republican establishment perpetuates its own hold on power and continues to benefit party consultants and lobbyists. They stopped doing what was best for America a long time ago and sold us out for a seat in first class. They are complicit in the damage Obama inflicted on America, yet they don’t understand our anger, as they believe this should just be business as usual, while the rest of us know that we are running out of time. Republican voters are so angry with the establishment that the anger is a powerful incentive for us to act. We are looking forward to throwing these weak sissy losers out of office and out of the halls of power, once and for all.

Republican voters have a vision for a Republican president and it’s not Mitt Romney with his little sissy walk. It’s more like the Jack Nicholson character from A Few Good Men, where he threatened to pull out Tom Cruise’s eyes and piss on his skull. That’s why they’re so fired up about Trump, because none of us doubt he’d piss on your skull if he had to.

Days are numbered for the Republican establishment and removing them from their positions of power is almost as important to us as getting rid of Obama.

Republican voters have been sending signals, warning the establishment for many years, but somehow the establishment still doesn’t get it. They should have learned from Eric Cantor, who was, for a time, the very popular House Majority Leader. Cantor was expected to cruise to re-election victory, but instead lost the Republican primary in 2014 to Dave Brat, a Tea Party guy and first time politician who nobody had ever heard of. But the upset made perfect sense when we learned that Brat’s entire campaign budget was $170,000 while Cantor’s campaign spent $170,000 in steak houses alone. Cantor, who was part of the establishment, didn’t listen.

Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton is a congenital liar who won’t hesitate to harm the country to benefit herself. In fact, 64 percent of voters think Clinton committed a crime by using a personal, non-secure email server and should be indicted, while 71 percent of Republicans say she should suspend her campaign immediately. Some 82 percent of Republicans also believe Hillary Clinton caused irreparable damage to national security, while 72 percent say her email was designed to avoid oversight.

Benghazi remains a serious issue with 72 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of independents convinced that Hillary is still lying about Benghazi. Almost all Republicans believe Hillary lied to the families of the men killed in Benghazi and further believe that her actions and inactions in Benghazi disqualify Hillary from becoming commander in chief.

Without exception, every time Hillary opens her mouth to address the Clinton email scandal she is lying. Republicans are sick to death of hearing Hillary blame her wrongdoing on anyone but herself and on the vast right wing conspiracy which doesn’t exist and never has really existed.

We will never forget the Americans she left to die in Benghazi, her criminal email system, her violations of the Espionage Act, public corruption and influence peddling through the Clinton Foundation or any of the countless crimes committed by Hillary Clinton. She belongs in the big house, not the White House.

Of equal importance to Republicans – because it is so disheartening – is the fact that 75 percent of Democrats believe Hillary is lying, but 68 percent of them will still vote for her. Benghazi, the email scandal, serial dishonesty, public corruption involving the Clinton Foundation not to mention her close alignment with Obama’s policies, results in Republicans who will happily and enthusiastically mobilizing to make sure Hillary Clinton never gets near the White House.

Democrat Policies

Direction of Country An overwhelming majority of Americans are angry about the direction of the country. By a margin of 65 percent to 28 percent, Americans believe we are headed in the wrong direction. Almost universally Republicans blame Barack Obama for that wrong direction, but they are also preparing to reject Hillary Clinton for what they believe will be more of the same. Source
Executive Orders Only 20 percent of Americans think Obama’s executive actions on amnesty for illegals is legal. The remaining overwhelming majority of Americans find his executive orders illegal and unacceptable. Source
Gun Control If I have ten guns and the government wants to take eight of them away, how many will I have left? That’s right, ten guns. Obama, Clinton and the rest of those sissy democrats can kiss our Second Amendment loving asses. Oh, 65 percent of Americans believe the Second Amendment is there to protect us from the government. Source
Sanctuary Cities Americans reject Sanctuary Cities and believe action should be taken against them. Some percent say that Congress should defund sanctuary cities and 62 percent of Americans want the Justice Department to take immediate legal action to stop these rebellious municipalities. Source
Global Warming What global warming? With no demonstrable global warming for the last 18 years, Americans are loosing patience with the left for their ongoing Chicken Little routine. Democrats may think climate change is the greatest threat to America, but the rest of us don’t. Source
Terrorism Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are starting to look like they’re learning impaired, so I’ll say it slowly: Radical Islamic Terrorism, you morons. After seven years of refusing to utter the phrase, it’s pretty clear that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton just don’t get it, and after Paris and San Bernardino they look ridiculous. Source
Muslim Refugees America agrees with Trump. More than 50 percent of Americans don’t want any Muslim refugees entering the country and 70 percent want to suspend Muslim immigration until the vetting process is perfected. Obama and the democrats are ignoring the people and are ramming this down our throats. It’s little surprise we don’t like the way it tastes. Source
Illegal Immigration Trump says build a wall and 70 percent of Republicans agree. Obama, Clinton and the left want a pathway to citizenship and free lawyers for the invaders who are caught. More than 60 percent of Republicans say democrat policies encourage illegals and 100 percent of Republicans refuse to accept the liberal strategy to convert 30 million illegal immigrants into democrat voters. Secure the border and stop trying to grant amnesty. Do you hear us now? Source

Diminished Voter Fraud

Chicago democrats throughout the twentieth century were experts at voter fraud. As it turns out, a nationwide effort by voter integrity organizations may be producing results. Groups like True The Vote and the Public Interest Legal Foundation have made tremendous progress cleaning up voter rolls and helping enact voter ID laws to prevent democrat groups from committing voter fraud. Voter ID laws have now been enacted in thirty states since Barack Obama was swept to victory in 2008.

This first election cycle since the enactment of many of these Voter ID laws seems to be indicating that GOP voter turnout crushing democrats may well continue. We analyzed voter turnout in early voting states that have new voter ID laws, as well as those that don’t, to see if there was an effect on turnout.  While it is impossible to draw conclusions with such a small statistical sample, preliminary analysis seems to indicate that new Voter ID laws are significantly reducing the number of dead people and illegal aliens who typically vote democrat. Below are the voter turnout numbers.

While eliminating voter fraud does not increase Republican enthusiasm or voter turnout, as have these other factors we have cited, voter ID laws may nonetheless result in GOP voter turnout crushing democrats in primary elections, because democrat voter fraud which would typically take place is being substantially reduced. American Thinker summarized the phenomenon yesterday in Democrat Turnout And Voter ID, The Dirty Little Secret.

In all, democrat voter turnout declined 37 percent in states that have voter ID laws while declining only 13 percent in other states. Just think of how interesting elections will be if democrats can’t cheat. If voter ID laws had always existed, we may never have elected Jack Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson or Barack Obama.
Voter Turnout 2016 Presidential Primary Election

GOP Voter Turnout Crushing Democrats In Primary Elections

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